Held on 12 May 2022
The Secret of Estimation
Getting predictability from a software development team can feel like herding sheep: it can seem like you're driving a flock whose every member is headed a different way and isn't in a hurry to get there. Engineers will tell you that they can't estimate accurately and that you should just wait until they're done. Are they right?
Yes—and no. It's a mug's game to try estimation for year-long projects in a complex domain where "best practises" are unknown. But that's not the only way to estimate. Truly agile teams have been delivering regularly and reliably for many years, by keeping delivery times short and making well-informed adjustments as they go. I'll guide you through:
- Knowing when you really need a deadline and when a glidepath is enough.
- Steering rather than following a trajectory: why the starship beats the rocket.
- Using the "probe-sense-respond" loop to move fast and stay in control (and why "Cynefin" is a terrible name for this method).
